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The world's leading consensus currency forecaster.

About

FX4casts has been helping financial officers make more profitable and prudent decisions for managing currency risks, budgeting and planning since 1986. Its consensus currency forecasts for 70 currencies have become industry benchmarks against which to evaluate forecasts from other sources.

KEY PERSONNEL

Alan Teck

Publisher and Editor-in-Chief

Alan Teck, Ph.D, has been the publisher and editor-in-chief of FX4casts since its inception in 1986. Previously, he was Director of Foreign Exchange Advisory Services at Chemical Bank (now J.P. Morgan Chase), with responsibility for profit centers in New York, London, Brussels and Hong Kong. Prior to his years at Chemical Bank, he worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and as assistant treasurer at both the Celanese Corporation and Macmillan Company.

Dr. Teck earned his masters and doctorate degrees from the Department of Economics at Columbia University; undergraduate degree from Cornell University; and completed the Executive Management Program at the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. His doctoral dissertation was revised and published by Columbia University Press under the title Mutual Savings Banks and Savings and Loan Associations: Aspects of Growth.

The author of numerous articles on aspects of international finance and currencies, Alan Teck also taught college courses in economics at the Baruch School of Business in New York, and was speaker for organizations such as the International Association of Business Economists.

Marsha Kameron

Vice President and Senior Economist

Marsha Kameron has been vice president and senior economist with FX4casts for more than 25 years. While there she applies her expertise in currency analysis acquired as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and an international economist at Chemical Bank (now JP Morgan Chase). Previously, she was an analyst at TJ Holt, an investment advisory firm, and a contributor to Statistics for the 21st Century, a book of articles about the collection and use of monetary data. While at FX4casts, she has been a consultant to Chevron, Dun and Bradstreet, Peat Marwick and several other Fortune 500 companies. Marsha is a member of Who's Who of American Woman in Business and has written numerous articles about currency analysis and international economics. She earned her MA in Economics from Queens College, NY.

Paul Spindel

Information Technology

Paul Spindel is responsible for building and maintaining the computer models that are used to develop the consensus forecasts. He is the former Associate Director of the Center for Advanced Technology at Columbia University and has been involved in the computer industry for more than 35 years. Mr. Spindel holds engineering degrees from Rensselear Polytechnic Institute and the Polytechnic Institute of Brooklyn.

What Subscribers Say

"FX4casts saves a lot of time as it provides forecasts for currencies, interest rates and economic indicators for all major and many minor countries all in one place. I can go quickly to countries of immediate interest instead of looking through numerous sources that are less timely and less reliable."

GM - General Motors
Joseph Febrarro Treasury Department General Motors

"We found that averaging a large number of independent currency forecasts produced better results than those of any of the individual forecasts in the group. We no longer have to do this as FX4casts does it for us with a much large group and better results."

American Express
Patrick O’Neal Currency Manager American Express

"Our job is to advise people making decisions for our financial markets department. FX4casts is one of our best sources. We particularly value the consensus currency expectations and indications of risk."

citi bank
David Lew International Private Banking Citibank

"FX4casts provides our FX trading department, which focuses on short-term trading decisions, with information that is useful when answering clients’ questions about the outlook for intermediate- and longer-term time periods."

Bank of America
Helen Camp Currency Strategist, FX Trading Department Bank of America

"FX4casts is useful in our fixed-income and exposure management decisions. We evaluate the consensus forecasts and the confidence intervals and how they change from month to month."

Salomon Brothers Investment
J. Paul Horne Managing Director and European Equity Market Economist Salomon Brothers

"By providing a consensus of expectations, we have a higher level of comfort in FX4casts than forecasts of individual organizations, which vary widely."

Vanguard
Nigel Green Manager Vanguard International

TRACK RECORD

STUDIES CONFIRM SUCCESS

Three studies confirm FX4casts superior track record.

Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations.  Paper by Professors Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard, and Menzie Chinn, University of California. “We find some ability in the survey data to predict future movements in exchange rates (and in the right direction!)… The results are based on data from FX4casts. In Monetary Policy, Capital Flows and Financial Market Developments in the Era of Financial Globalization, edited by William Allen and David Dickinson.

Predictability in Financial Markets: What do Survey Expectations Tell US? National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper by Philippe Bacchette and Elmer Mertens, University of Lausanne, and Eric van Wincoop, University of Virginia. “We find systematic evidence of   excess return predictability in the foreign exchange market...Moreover, the predictability of expectational errors coincides with the predictability of excess returns.” This study uses FX4casts consensus currency and interest-rate forecasts from August 1986 through July 2005.

Returns to Following Currency Forecasts, Patrick Lehner, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, John Okunev and Derek White, Principal Global Investors. This study evaluates FX4casts consensus currency forecasts from 1986-2011 Part of the summary say: “By focusing on the extreme currencies, it was found that from 1995 through 2003, a return of 57 basis points a month could be earned… Returns earned by following the consensus recommendations increased greatly when technical and/or interest rate signals give similar rankings. For example, when twelve-month currency forecasts agree with technical and interest rate signals, the average monthly return jumped to 174 basis points.” The complete study is on www.ssrn.com.

FEATURES

Timeliness

Now that increased volatility has become the new normal, FX4casts is the only consensus forecasting service that updates its currency forecasts three times a month.

Confidence Intervals

FX4casts provides confidence intervals around the consensus forecasts so analysts can relate the amount of risk associated with the consensus forecasts with the risk tolerances of their respective organizations.

Accuracy

FX4casts uses the geometric mean rather than the arithmetic mean to compute the consensus forecasts to reflect more accurately the group’s expectations.

CONTRIBUTORS

Contributors to FX4casts Consensus Forecasts
Allied Irish Bank
ANZ Bank
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Bank of New York Mellon
Barclays Capital
Bayern LB
BNP Paribas
CIBC
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
Citigroup
Commerzbank
Credit Suisse
Danske Bank
DekaBank
Deutsche Bank
DnBNOR
The Economist Intelligence Unit
Goldman Sachs
Handelsbanken
HSBC
IHS Global Insight
ING VYSYA Bank
Intesa
JP Morgan Chase
Julius Bar
Lloyds TSB
Macquarie Capital Securities
Moody’s Economy.com
Morgan Stanley
National Australia Bank
Nomura
Nordea
Rabobank
RBC - Royal Bank of Canada
RBS - Royal Bank of Scotland
Scotia Bank
SEB
Societe Generale
Standard Chartered
Suntrust
Swedbank
Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
Toronto Dominion
UBS Warburg
UniCredit
Vontobel
Wachovia
Westpac